This was written by a friend of mine months ago. Even more true today with 10 days to go.
"The Electoral College will almost certainly be decided by which candidate wins at least Georgia or Pennsylvania, plus two out of three of the other battleground states: Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin... In both 2016 and 2020, the margin of victory in most of these five states was less than 1 point.
I’m saying that, when elections are very close, it’s simply not possible for any polls or forecasting to tell us anything more specific than 'the race will be close.' They’re just not accurate enough; it’s like trying to look for bacteria using a magnifying glass.
...Stressing over polling makes us think election outcomes are like the weather—something that happens to us. In reality, election outcomes are what we make happen—especially in the battleground states, which are so evenly and predictably divided.
Remember: any election within the margin of error is also within the margin of effort—the work we must always put in to get enough of those who dread a MAGA future to turn out to vote." #KamalaHarris
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2023/09/29/a-cure-for-mad-poll-disease/